One more post on Cisco, and then I'll be done for now. I wanted to elaborate a bit on some things I said in my previous two posts which can be found here and here.
I talked a fair amount about OpenFlow last time. I kind of presented it as a potential panacea for Cisco. I think it's a very interesting technology but I don't think I did a very good job of explaining why that is or how I think it can help Cisco. I'm not going to subject anyone to a routing primer here but I do need to spend a brief bit of time explaining at a high level how modern networks work.
Networks are a lot like our road system. To talk to your email server or retrieve a web page your computer needs to know how to send a request to a remote computer and that remote computer needs to know how to send a response back. In the real world when I have a similar problem I bring up Google Maps, type in my starting point and destination and get back a route to get me from where I am to where I want to be. Networks use exactly the same basic approach. It's called routing. The big difference between routing and Google Maps or a navigation system is that routing figures out the next turn or "hop" one step at a time while your navigation system figures out the entire path for your trip from beginning to end. While the route taken between any two points more than one hop apart can change over time it tends to be fairly static over shorter periods such as minutes or hours.
There is another concept in networking that is important to understand. It's called "flows". A flow is a conversation that goes on between two different end points(computers) on the Internet. A flow could be you typing a URL in your browser which causes your computer to retrieve a web page or a continuing conversation via a chat client. Flows are particularly important in the case of firewalls. When your computer starts a conversation with a remote system it needs to be able to hear the response. In the modern world there are almost certainly at least two firewalls in between the end points of that conversation. In order for the response to get back temporary holes need to be opened on both ends. These holes are created as a result of flows. If a conversation (or flow) is allowed by the firewall policy then a temporary hole is opened in the opposite direction to allow a response back
One of the coolest things about OpenFlow is that it allows you to manage flows and how they get from point A to point B. You could for instance send video, web traffic and voice data all over different paths even though one or both of the end points is identical. You could create what is referred to as a "honeypot" in the security world and route suspicious traffic into your network to that honeypot. To the attacker this could be made largely transparent. They would think that they were actually breaking into your network while instead they were wasting their time. The first example is from one of the videos on the Openflow web site while the second is one that occurred to me while thinking about this technology.
So how does this help Cisco? Well, in truth it's more about Cisco getting ahead of the curve rather than having their competition out innovate them. The reason I see OpenFlow as a paradigm shifting technology is that it essentially eliminates the need for traditional routing in some cases and provides a tool that allows for the management of flows in a highly dynamic and customizable way. The potential for new products and technologies to emerge from this shift is significant. Cisco is well positioned to be a leader given their expertise in networking and growing presence in the server space. They basically own a portion of the entire puzzle from end point to end point. That is a very exciting place to be right now. If, and this is a big if they recognize the possibilities and are willing to make the investments and changes needed to take advantage. Big well established companies seldom do in these circumstances.
To summarize, one of the thing that is revolutionary about OpenFlow is that it enables us to get away from routing and focus instead on flows of data. There still needs to be a way to know how to get from point A to point B, but that information can be handled in a much more dynamic and flexible manner. Great technology alone doesn't create shareholder value. You need to leverage that technology to solve problems that customers are willing to pay to have solved. Cisco is well position to both identify those problems and solve them and if they don't, someone else is likely to.
While Cisco is making positive moves right now my suspicion is that instead of adjusting to the competitive and technology landscape as it is today they are trying to return to what worked for them in the past. It'll be an interesting story to follow, and hopefully not in "train wreck in progress" kind of way.
Image by densaer via Flickr
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
How Does Cisco Get Out Of Trouble? OpenFlow?
I'll start this entry with another disclaimer. As I said in my previous post, I'm just a guy who likes to figure things out. My current obsession of the moment is Cisco and understanding both why they got where they are today and how they could potentially find a path forward. I don't have any insider information and while my day job involves networking I wouldn't consider myself an expert. I'm currently working towards a Cisco CCNP and have a good high to mid level grasp of networking and familiarity with the major market segments. I also have a day job that is taking up a lot of my time right now and a lot of other interests. I only have a limited amount of time to research and think about this stuff. I've never worked at Cisco and I didn't interview anyone who does before writing this and my previous entry. I really enjoy writing this BLOG though and putting words down on "paper" often helps me gain insight and a better understanding of the topics I discuss. With that out of the way...
In my previous post I covered some of the things Cisco has done that have put them in a place where their stock price has essentially been stalled for a decade plus and their competition has been eating away at their market share. I pointed out some of the downsides of a primarily acquisition based culture. Innovation suffers when you're waiting around for the next big thing. Buying external companies may save money and reduce the risks inherent in R&D but it also means you're potentially giving your competition a head start. It's easy enough to acquire small companies that come up with interesting new technologies but this is much less true if the next big thing is invented by Juniper, HP or one of the other big players.
Cisco has a lot of very smart people working for them. The tricky bit is that the company is not especially innovative. The whole culture has been built around acquisitions and their integration.
Cisco started out as an innovation company. Somehow they need to find a way to get back there. In the meantime they are going to likely be shedding unprofitable assets and continuing to refocus on their core networking expertise. They've also seen some success in the server and data center virtualization space in recent years. Servers and networking might not seem like an obvious market adjacency but given the trends brought on by virtualization they are increasingly tightly coupled in the data center. Over the past couple of years Cisco has managed to leverage that increasing integration to create a nearly one billion dollar business. That's one of the rare bright spots in an otherwise gloomy picture. Which leads me to my next point.
There has been a lot of talk about cloud computing over the past few years. Increasingly the location of data and computational resources are viewed as important only from the perspective of data security and ready availability. So long as I have access and my data is safe I don't really care where it lives. I'm not unique in this. All sorts of "magic" needs to go on behind the scenes to make this work seamlessly. Layer three TCP/IP networks are not well suited to this kind of work since they are hierarchical and inflexible as to where a particular network host/identity lives. There are things you can do with VLAN's, DNS and other technologies to mask some of this but those solutions are limited and messy. Increasingly, as Sun Microsystems used to say, "The Network is the Computer".
So one thing Cisco does have going for them is their server/virtualization products. If they can do a good job of offering solutions that overcome the issues inherent in traditional layer three networks they stand to make a lot of money. But how are they going to go about doing this? On the one hand proprietary solutions are appealing from a business perspective as they lock consumers into a complete solution. If you want all the magic you have to buy all Cisco, all the time. As a consumer, I hate that approach. I don't like getting locked into one vendor, no matter how much I like them. Companies take turns for the worse, new technologies emerge that turn the world on its head, etc. Vendor lock in is a non starter for me. Superior products and the inevitable switching costs should be enough for any well run company to keep their customers. If you have to resort primarily to lock in via proprietary features you are doing something wrong.
So how can Cisco innovate in this area quickly? One intriguing possibility is OpenFlow. What is OpenFlow? to quote the web site...
OpenFlow enables networks to evolve, by giving a remote controller the power to modify the behavior of network devices, through a well-defined "forwarding instruction set". The growing OpenFlow ecosystem now includes routers, switches, virtual switches, and access points from a range of vendors.
Notably so far as I can tell it does not include Cisco devices currently. This is a problem. The OpenFlow effort is relatively new but it smells like a game changing development to me. Cisco has been involved in OpenFlow but external appearances show them being much less interested than HP and other vendors in this market. If you're an established and dominant player in a market technologies like OpenFlow are scary because they fundamentally disrupt the way your business works. You've made assumptions and built an organization based on a certain world view. You can't just turn an organization the size of Cisco on a dime. It takes time and effort. Worst yet, how do you know when a particular trend is game changing versus being a flash in the pan? It's not an easy question to answer. Having to deal with questions like this is why CEO's and senior management get paid a lot of money.
It's my opinion that OpenFlow is going to help change fundamentally how networking, and computing is done. To be clear, I'm not saying that OpenFlow is the initiator of this change but rather that it is emerging as a very interesting enabling technology that supports trends in the industry such as virtualization, cloud computing and data mobility.
Cisco shouldn't be sitting on the side lines or conspiring to work around or subvert OpenFlow. They should be embracing what it brings to the table and leveraging their growing market presence on the server/virtualization side in conjunction with their networking business to build compelling solutions that will excite customers and investors. Cisco is well placed to carry out such a strategy and I believe it could be very lucrative. To date though they don't seem to be moving in that direction. Fighting what OpenFlow represents will be a tough battle and not one that is likely to end well. Microsoft fought the emergence of TCP/IP for several years and we all know how that ended. I think this situation is fairly analogous.
Products built solely on proprietary platforms are going to have difficulty keeping up with the innovation that a more open environment creates and fosters and even a company as large as Cisco is going to have a tough time providing all the bits and pieces that will be needed to make a purely proprietary solution work. There are just too many moving parts.
Image by Getty Images via @daylife
In my previous post I covered some of the things Cisco has done that have put them in a place where their stock price has essentially been stalled for a decade plus and their competition has been eating away at their market share. I pointed out some of the downsides of a primarily acquisition based culture. Innovation suffers when you're waiting around for the next big thing. Buying external companies may save money and reduce the risks inherent in R&D but it also means you're potentially giving your competition a head start. It's easy enough to acquire small companies that come up with interesting new technologies but this is much less true if the next big thing is invented by Juniper, HP or one of the other big players.
Cisco has a lot of very smart people working for them. The tricky bit is that the company is not especially innovative. The whole culture has been built around acquisitions and their integration.
Cisco started out as an innovation company. Somehow they need to find a way to get back there. In the meantime they are going to likely be shedding unprofitable assets and continuing to refocus on their core networking expertise. They've also seen some success in the server and data center virtualization space in recent years. Servers and networking might not seem like an obvious market adjacency but given the trends brought on by virtualization they are increasingly tightly coupled in the data center. Over the past couple of years Cisco has managed to leverage that increasing integration to create a nearly one billion dollar business. That's one of the rare bright spots in an otherwise gloomy picture. Which leads me to my next point.
There has been a lot of talk about cloud computing over the past few years. Increasingly the location of data and computational resources are viewed as important only from the perspective of data security and ready availability. So long as I have access and my data is safe I don't really care where it lives. I'm not unique in this. All sorts of "magic" needs to go on behind the scenes to make this work seamlessly. Layer three TCP/IP networks are not well suited to this kind of work since they are hierarchical and inflexible as to where a particular network host/identity lives. There are things you can do with VLAN's, DNS and other technologies to mask some of this but those solutions are limited and messy. Increasingly, as Sun Microsystems used to say, "The Network is the Computer".
So one thing Cisco does have going for them is their server/virtualization products. If they can do a good job of offering solutions that overcome the issues inherent in traditional layer three networks they stand to make a lot of money. But how are they going to go about doing this? On the one hand proprietary solutions are appealing from a business perspective as they lock consumers into a complete solution. If you want all the magic you have to buy all Cisco, all the time. As a consumer, I hate that approach. I don't like getting locked into one vendor, no matter how much I like them. Companies take turns for the worse, new technologies emerge that turn the world on its head, etc. Vendor lock in is a non starter for me. Superior products and the inevitable switching costs should be enough for any well run company to keep their customers. If you have to resort primarily to lock in via proprietary features you are doing something wrong.
So how can Cisco innovate in this area quickly? One intriguing possibility is OpenFlow. What is OpenFlow? to quote the web site...
OpenFlow enables networks to evolve, by giving a remote controller the power to modify the behavior of network devices, through a well-defined "forwarding instruction set". The growing OpenFlow ecosystem now includes routers, switches, virtual switches, and access points from a range of vendors.
Notably so far as I can tell it does not include Cisco devices currently. This is a problem. The OpenFlow effort is relatively new but it smells like a game changing development to me. Cisco has been involved in OpenFlow but external appearances show them being much less interested than HP and other vendors in this market. If you're an established and dominant player in a market technologies like OpenFlow are scary because they fundamentally disrupt the way your business works. You've made assumptions and built an organization based on a certain world view. You can't just turn an organization the size of Cisco on a dime. It takes time and effort. Worst yet, how do you know when a particular trend is game changing versus being a flash in the pan? It's not an easy question to answer. Having to deal with questions like this is why CEO's and senior management get paid a lot of money.
It's my opinion that OpenFlow is going to help change fundamentally how networking, and computing is done. To be clear, I'm not saying that OpenFlow is the initiator of this change but rather that it is emerging as a very interesting enabling technology that supports trends in the industry such as virtualization, cloud computing and data mobility.
Cisco shouldn't be sitting on the side lines or conspiring to work around or subvert OpenFlow. They should be embracing what it brings to the table and leveraging their growing market presence on the server/virtualization side in conjunction with their networking business to build compelling solutions that will excite customers and investors. Cisco is well placed to carry out such a strategy and I believe it could be very lucrative. To date though they don't seem to be moving in that direction. Fighting what OpenFlow represents will be a tough battle and not one that is likely to end well. Microsoft fought the emergence of TCP/IP for several years and we all know how that ended. I think this situation is fairly analogous.
Products built solely on proprietary platforms are going to have difficulty keeping up with the innovation that a more open environment creates and fosters and even a company as large as Cisco is going to have a tough time providing all the bits and pieces that will be needed to make a purely proprietary solution work. There are just too many moving parts.
Image by Getty Images via @daylife
Related Articles
- Why Is Cisco In Trouble? (emkey1.blogspot.com)
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Why Is Cisco In Trouble?
Financial Background
Cisco was a long time tech darling. The undisputed king of the networking world and a sure money maker throughout the 1990's. From the perspective of their stock that hasn't been true for awhile now...
If you look at the graph to the left of this text you'll see what I mean. Cisco's stock price has been hovering between $15 & $32 for the past decade plus with the general trend being down recently. These aren't the kind of numbers that excite investors.
Of course the stock market isn't purely about numbers or logic. There is an emotional element as well. Until recently Cisco's EPS (Earnings Per Share) have generally shown an upward trend over the past decade.
CSCO Stock Chart by YCharts
I'm not a stock analyst and I won't pretend to play one on the Internet but clearly Cisco's earnings growth haven't been impressing investors. Google is an extreme case but if we compare them to Cisco we'll get a pretty good hint as to why.
CSCO Stock Chart by YCharts
It's not hard to figure out which of these companies most people would prefer to put their money in.
So we know that Cisco's financial performance has been considered poor. The question is, why? Such questions seldom have simple answers. It's probably fair to lay some of the blame at the feet of companies that made radical reductions in their technology investments after the dot com bubble burst. Even so, Cisco has been very slow to recover and recent results have been painting an increasingly grim picture.
The Possible Why(s)
From outside of the company and with zero insider information here is one of the key overlooked contributors to Cisco's current malaise.
Cisco has always been known for their acquisition culture. When they have seen an emerging market or technology they've gone out and bought one or more best of bread companies in that area. They are famous for their ability to quickly incorporate these new purchases into the collective. In the past the advantage to such an approach has been that you could minimize your R&D investment. In addition you got to pick the winners and reward them rather than having to back some of your own failures.
R&D when done right is directed with some goal in mind but it is largely speculative. You might spend millions of dollars on something that turns out to be a complete bust. Cisco was able to avoid taking this risk by simply waiting for new markets to develop and buying their way in. One example from the mid to late 1990's was the emergence of network switches. Cisco was able to acquire several companies and quickly become a dominant player at the network access layer via what became their Catalyst line.
There is a problem with this approach though. No matter how good you are at incorporating new companies into the fold, it takes time. Networking is becoming increasingly complex and tightly integrated in the data center and at the core and edge. These are the areas most large companies care about. The emerging trend towards cloud computing is playing a part as well as small to medium sized companies are increasingly out sourcing much of their most expensive network infrastructure to large service providers who also use highly complex and integrated network topologies. Products acquired from the outside are not going to be plug and play with Cisco's existing product line.
Adhering to industry standards helps in this regard but there has always been a tendency for proprietary technologies to play a part in Cisco and other companies product offerings. The EIGRP routing protocol is an example. Technologies developed in house take into account the larger ecosystem of the company. The product managers and marketing professionals involved along the way (if they are doing their jobs) build a coherent picture and story about where new products fit into the larger picture.
So, the upside of the acquisition approach is that it allows a company to be nimble and minimize risky investments in research and development. The downside of this approach is that it takes time to "digest" new acquisitions, even if you are as good at it as Cisco. As the pace of innovation has become faster on the high end and the number of players on the low end has increased Cisco has increasingly struggled to keep up with their competition. At the access layer HP offers products with similar or superior features for significantly less money while companies like Aruba, previously known for their wireless products are announcing new products and road maps that offer intriguing capabilities that could greatly increase security and reduce the costs and complexity of managing networks.
One way to be good at incorporating new acquisitions is to create what is essentially a loose federation of smaller entities. Structures such as this become increasingly attractive as companies grow in diversity and complexity. GE would be an example. Cisco has a much narrower focus than GE but you only have to look at their numerous IOS variants (Cisco IOS, IOS XE, IOS XR, and NX-OS for example) to realize that they either chose not to provide a unified architecture in this area or they weren't capable of creating one. Different devices are going to have different needs but until relatively recently Cisco managed to keep their router and switch IOS's reasonably close in terms of syntax and versioning. Now it seems like every new product line has a new and unique operating system that has only a superficial resemblance to IOS.
To be clear, I'm not objecting to the underlying architectural improvements of IOS XR and NX-OS though in terms of intent these two sound similar enough under the covers that I'm not convinced they should be separate product lines. What I'm objecting to is the lack of consistency and tight integration. Networks are complex and making the lives of people who work in the networking field more difficult is not a good thing.
A Few More Thoughts/Wrap Up
Acquisitions can also be problematic if you start buying the wrong things. Many people, myself included feel that Cisco went off the rails when they started acquiring companies in the consumer space. Their first mistake was not the purchase of Linksys, but rather putting the Cisco name on Linksys products. This is somewhat akin to Nordstrom buying the Dollar store chain and calling in "Nordstrom's Dollar Stores". From a branding perspective I didn't understand the point of this move.
Other forays into the consumer space were even more perplexing. In business it's generally considered best to stick close to things you know. The further afield you get in terms of acquisitions the more likely you are to make big dollar mistakes. Flip is the most obvious example of this for Cisco. Video certainly drives bandwidth on networks as the recent reports that NetFlix streaming now makes up more than a fifth of Internet traffic in the US show. However, Cisco may have seen video as a growing market and wanted to get a piece of the pie. Pursuing revenue growth is one of the jobs of any company. Doing so outside of your area of expertise is risky because the new area can become a distraction that draws resources and attention away from your crown jewels.
In the interest of keeping this from growing any longer I'm going to wrap up here. From where I'm sitting Cisco is starting to do the right things. They've dropped Flip and they are saying the right things about focusing on their core competencies. I'd like to see them restructure to be more focused on R&D and tight product integration. They should probably keep acquisitions low and focused on technologies that can be quickly integrated into their product line rather than fully or nearly fully realized products. Another reason for laying off the acquisitions is that they may have to find a way to live off of substantially smaller margins for awhile. Having a bunch of money in the bank will help smooth a much needed transformation.
The next two years will be key for Cisco. They are losing to their competition across the board right now. IBM faced a similar crises twenty five years ago and managed to survive. There is no reason to believe that Cisco can't as well but they have a tough road ahead of them.
Related Articles
- Cisco refuses to deny it will sell off Linksys (go.theregister.com)
- A Garbage Can Full Of Flip Cams At Cisco (CSCO) (businessinsider.com)
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
ASUS/Nook/More On Differentiation
The key here is that ASUS is offering a product that is cheaper than Apples iPad and has a significant upgrade available with the optional keyboard. This is how you compete with a company like Apple and a product like the iPad.
Another company that has the right idea is Barnes & Noble. with their color Nook. I'm not a fan on non E-Ink book readers but with the recent Android 2.2 upgrade the color Nook has a lot to offer. At $250 it's half the price of the iPad and offers many of the basics people want in a Tablet with Email, web browsing and a very stripped down app store.
Both of these products differentiate themselves on price and features while providing what seems like a clear value proposition to potential buyers.
It's easy to point out a company that doesn't seem to get it. RIM, maker of the until recently beloved Blackberry smart phones fumbled badly with the Playbook. The device is significantly smaller than an iPad which isn't necessarily a bad thing but the base model (16GB, WiFi Only) costs exactly the same as an iPad. Really? For a 7 inch display?
I suspect the thinking in regards to pricing on the Playbook was that RIM is a premium brand and they can't be seen as competing with Apple on price. If so, fair enough but they aren't competitive on features either. That is not a good combination. A price point $50 below Apples would have acknowledged this without making the Playbook seem "cheap". At $100 less I'd have given it serious consideration if I were in the market right now. I'm only one data point of course but at some level these are the kinds of evaluations that go on in peoples heads when they are in the market for a particular product and exploring their options.
Clearly it is possible to compete with Apple. Google has been very effective with their Android operating system in the smart phone space. Both Android and iOS offer similar user experiences but they are significantly different in ways that differentiate them from each other. I may write more on this in the future. Right now it's time to get prepared for my day job.
Related Articles
- ASUS/The iKey Lives! (Short Take) (emkey1.blogspot.com)
- Tablets/iKey/Apple/Fungibility (emkey1.blogspot.com)
- Apple, Cannibalization (emkey1.blogspot.com)
- iKeyboard Gives Your iPad a Faux Keypad (techeblog.com)
- ASUS Eee Pad Transformer confirmed for US at $399 (electronista.com)
- PlayBook recall pushes BlackBerry stock to a new low (news.bioscholar.com)
Sunday, May 15, 2011
ASUS/The iKey Lives! (Short Take)
The Eee Pad has one significant feature I hadn't thought of. The keyboard has additional battery capacity so it can run 40% longer while plugged in. It doesn't look like the keyboard can be used without plugging in but that isn't a big deal. It's the ability to detach the keyboard that is of primary importance.
I'm seeing conflicting information on pricing but the tablet and keyboard are sold separately and appear to go for ~ $650 total if you can find them in stock.
It does look a bit thicker than I'd like with the keyboard and it doesn't have 3G capabilities so you're going to be limited to wireless for now and based on the reviews there are some flaws but it's an intriguing and very cool product in my opinion.
ASUS Eee Pad Transformer TF101-A1 10.1-Inch Tablet Computer (Tablet Only)
ASUS Eee Pad Transformer TF101 Keyboard/Docking Station
ASUS is doing the right thing here. They've made the keyboard available but optional and are pricing the combination to be very competitive with Apples offerings. This product won't beat Apple by itself but I think it's going to help ASUS compete effectively against the iPad.
I'm seeing conflicting information on pricing but the tablet and keyboard are sold separately and appear to go for ~ $650 total if you can find them in stock.
It does look a bit thicker than I'd like with the keyboard and it doesn't have 3G capabilities so you're going to be limited to wireless for now and based on the reviews there are some flaws but it's an intriguing and very cool product in my opinion.
ASUS Eee Pad Transformer TF101-A1 10.1-Inch Tablet Computer (Tablet Only)
ASUS Eee Pad Transformer TF101 Keyboard/Docking Station
ASUS is doing the right thing here. They've made the keyboard available but optional and are pricing the combination to be very competitive with Apples offerings. This product won't beat Apple by itself but I think it's going to help ASUS compete effectively against the iPad.
Related Articles
- Tablets/iKey/Apple/Fungibility (emkey1.blogspot.com)
Tablets/iKey/Apple/Fungibility
OK, so while it’s good to take sales away from your competition are there factors that companies keep in mind when evaluating new product offerings designed to compete with existing competitor products? Not surprisingly the answer is yes. I’m only going to touch one here. I’ll continue to use Apple and the fictitious iKey which is an iPad like device with a detachable keyboard about the size of an iPad 1.
One of the interesting phenomena of iPad competitors has been the fact that almost nobody seems to be trying to undercut Apples pricing in the tablet space. This is somewhat perplexing. On the one hand Apple does have the advantage of a very healthy content marketplace to help them offset the costs of designing and building the iPad but on the other they buy all of their components from other companies since they don’t build processors, touch screens, batteries, etc. The companies that do make these components are all taking a cut of the actions. LG, Sony, Hitachi, etc. all own substantial component manufacturing capabilities. It would be fair to argue that Apple can afford to sell the iPad for little or no profit since it drives a larger “eco system” but Sony isn’t lacking in this area given their media assets
It may be possible that potential competitors are weary of being seen as cheap imitators if they bring out tablets that cost less. This would be a reasonable concern but some of Apples competitors are actually charging more for what seems like less. Frankly that phenomenon confuses me. I have absolutely no interest in buying a 10 inch or so Android based wireless only tablet for more than $499 and I suspect most people would agree. I love my Android based Droid X but I wouldn’t pay more for it than an iPhone. Ignoring functionality, iOS & Apple have a much larger cachet. Old school cell phones are essentially fungible and smart phones are heading in that direction, particularly in the Android market segment. Superior features may help differentiate a product in this kind of market but at least some of the differentiation is going to be purely based on brand perception and buzz. Apple wins big on both counts.
So, in addition to cannibalization another potential factor companies have to consider is fear of cheapening their brand. Given the commodity nature of consumer electronic products this probably isn’t a big factor in this case but it is something to keep in mind. Apple is a premium brand and if you are forced to compete with them on price rather than features you’re going to come out looking a little bit tawdry.
Getting back to my fanciful iKey idea, one way a company could choose to compete with Apple is to create a product that is adjacent to the iPad but not a direct competitor. A tablet sized device with a physical keyboard could in theory do that. If executed well it could cannibalize some of Apples iPad sales.
The key here would be to make something no bigger than the MacBook Air in terms of thickness and with a ten inch screen. You can get pretty close to a full sized keyboard with that form factor. After experimenting with our iPad 2 using a small Blue Tooth keyboard I'm starting to think you might not even need a touch pad with such a device. It's reasonably natural to reach out and use the screen.
Apple innovates mostly in small ways. They didn't invent the MP3 player, they perfected it. They didn't invent the smart phone, but they sure as heck put their mark on that market. Imitating Apple is not the right way to compete with them. They are always thinking several steps ahead as market leaders generally are. It's always good to know what the competition is doing, but for businesses that want to live at the top of the food chain that is not enough. You have to be willing to take some chances and work hard to understand where there are opportunities to try something a little different. Steve Jobs and company do have the advantage of what is now a very well established and regarded brand but they got there by taking chances. The Apple Lisa was an early example.
High margins come through innovation, not creating "me too" products.
Related Articles
- Apple, Cannibalization (emkey1.blogspot.com)
- iPad no PC killer scoff researchers (slashgear.com)
- Nvidia CEO: Why Android tablets aren't selling (news.cnet.com)
Saturday, May 14, 2011
iPad 2 Review
After a couple of weeks of use we're both very impressed. My wife has owned a couple of generations of the iPod Touch, including the latest version. The iPad is in many respects just a much bigger iPod Touch. This isn't a bad thing. Small highly functional devices that fit in your pocket are great to have around but there are just times when having more screen real estate is essential.
I wouldn't try to make a BLOG post on an iPod Touch, but it is easy to do with the iPad 2. In fact I'm typing this review using a Bluetooth keyboard attached to the iPad on the Safari browser. I wouldn't want to go much smaller than this, but I don't feel like the quality of this experience is being seriously compromised. As I noted with my fanciful iKey product idea in a previous post, an iPad sized device with a detachable keyboard is a potentially compelling product offering. You could argue that we already went through that with the Net-book but I think there's a significant difference wether Apple made such a device or somebody else. A Net-book doesn't fit comfortably in a purse or small piece of luggage.
Getting back to the iPad 2, a lot has already been written. We didn't own the first generation so I can't do a detailed comparison. I will say that the second generation iPad just seems a bit more finished and refined than the original. This is fairly typical of Apple's approach. Nobody does design better and constant refinement is a given. This isn't to say that Apple has never made mistakes in this area. I'm not a fan of the iPhone 4's aesthetic. It is boxy and kind of ugly compared to the 3G & 3GS. The iPad 2 is much closer to the older iPhones in looks which probably explains why I like it.
We've done a bit of web browsing but the primary use so far has been games. Plants versus Zombies is a lot of fun and the iPad two is a great crossword puzzle conduit.
Battery life has been very good. We haven't done any formal tests but for normal use we seem to do fine if we remember to plug it in couple of days. It doesn't have anything close to the Kindle's longevity in this area but it's a much more capable device.
Speaking of the Kindle, the iPad 2 is not an eBook reader. At least not for me. The Kindle is very easy on the eyes. I can read for hours with little or no fatigue. This is not true of the iPad 2. I spend a lot of time staring and LCD displays and seldom have a problem. For some reason though reading on the iPad 2 is not a pleasant experience. I'll concede that some of that could be purely psychological but I don't think all of it is. I tend to suspect that people who claim the iPad is a replacement for the Kindle and other E-Ink readers haven't actually spent much time with the competition.
I wasn't willing to commit $500 to the first generation iPad. There just wasn't enough functionality there for me. Apple made enough improvements to the iPad 2 that it was an easy choice. Doubling the memory, doubling the CPU and significantly improving the graphics performance while achieving the same price point was a job well done.
I wasn't able to completely finish this entry on the iPad since some of the BLOGGER tools I use don't quite work perfectly with the iPad Safari. This isn't a huge deal and I'd grit my teeth and post if I didn't have the option of doing some polishing on my Laptop.
So, in brief summary it's a very nice product and we certainly have no regrets about the purchase. It provides more than enough utility/value to justify the expenditure.
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